Review of BPR methodologies

This paper presents the advantages and disadvantages of using a methodology in the context of BPR. It also provides a critique of existing BPR methodologies which erved as a basis for the development of the CONDOR BPR methodology. The paper also presents the main points of the implementation of this methodology to three European construction companies. What can a methodology offer to the BPR field? According to Preece and Peppard (1996), a methodology is simply theory put into practice aiming at dealing with real world situations.According to Valiris and Glykas (1999) a BPR methodology should provide ‘ ‘a consistent set of techniques and guidelines which will enable the business process redesigner to reorganise business ctivities and processes in an organisation†. The use of a methodology is essential for a number of reasons. First, a methodology provides a means of codifying experience, knowledge and ideas, in a form that not only can be easily applied, but also ca n be evaluated and tested. Second, a methodology offers a certain level of organisation, and facilitates planning and monitoring.In BPR initiatives, a methodology enables the organisation, on the one hand, to have a clear picture of its current processes along with their associated problems and, on the other, to design the new state of these processes. In addition, by following a certain methodology, BPR re-engineers† have the opportunity to monitor and evaluate the progress of the re-engineering effort. Third, a methodology enables those who are involved or affected by the BPR to understand their tasks and clarify their roles.A BPR methodology which is clearly defined and explained to those who are leading the BPR work can facilitate the communication between them, and serve as a kind of ‘ ‘contract† in which all the parties understand their responsibilities and are, therefore, able to monitor the overall process re-engineering progress. Finally, adoption of a methodology allows a standard set of required skills to be identified and developed. Key skills required for BPR include process modelling, organisational development techniques, and skills to deal with resistance to change.There are, however, a number of problems related to the use of a methodology. One important reason which explains the reluctance of developing and using methodologies or models in the BPR context is that the widely accepted methodologies are based on how the business processes should change and how the organisation should adapt itself in this change, rather than on the evaluation of urrent practices and on the codification of successful practical experiences (Simsion, 1994).Moreover, the BPR literature search reveals that there are an increasing number of successful re-engineering implementations and case studies using BPR methodologies. Although each business situation has some unique characteristics, an appropriate methodology will need to allow tor assessme nt and re-use ot existing successful approaches and practical experiences. In addition, a methodology hides the danger of restraining creativity and innovation. The latter are crucial elements in he radical thinking during the re-engineering process.By encouraging those who are involved in the reengineering process to comply with the requirements of a given methodology, there is a potential risk of restricting the opportunity of optimising the results according to the level required by the methodology (Simsion,1994). Critique of existing BPR 239 240 In conclusion, there are many advantages and disadvantages regarding the use of a specific methodology or model in the re-engineering initiative. Each side demonstrates equally important arguments that affect the organisation.The lternative to using a methodology in an attempt to minimise the negative consequences is not anarchy but a contingency approach tailored to suit the objectives and needs of every organisation or business sector, building on basic principles of planning and monitoring as well as on previous successful working practices. Critique of existing BPR methodologies and models The are many BPR methodologies and models available, and most of them pursue a similar path and exhibit commonalities in key areas (Butler, 1994).Today, an increasing number of methodologies, models and tools taken from other disciplines re available in the market, claiming that they are suitable for BPR initiatives. Ruessmann et al. (1994) reported the results of their research, claiming that BPR methodologies are based on a synthesis of techniques drawn from other disciplines and methodologies such as soft systems, total quality management (TQM), benchmarking, and organisational development. According to a I-JK BPR methodology survey summary findings (Archer, 1996), the number of stages involved in BPR approaches varies greatly, despite the fact that they do present key similarities.

Ming Dynasty Trade

Andrew Paul Stokes June 5, 2011 Ming Dynasty Economy It’s growth and it’s decline. By Andrew Paul Stokes Beijing Union University 1|P a ge Andrew Paul Stokes June 5, 2011 Ming Dynasty Economy The Ming Dynasty The economy of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) of China was the largest in the world at the time. It is regarded as one of China's three golden ages (the other two being the Han and Tang dynasties), the Ming is also the dynasty where the first sprouts of Chinese capitalism can be seen.The economic growth so evident under the Ming Dynasty continued under the Qing Dynasty, up until the time of the Opium War in the 1840s. During this time, China’s domestic economy was a dynamic, commercialising economy, and in some ways, even an industrialising economy. The Ming Dynasty, â€Å"one of the greatest eras of orderly government and social stability in human history† 1, was the last native imperial dynasty in Chinese history, sandwiched between the two dynasties of foreign origin, Yuan and Qing. The Ming stand as the last attempt to hold Chinese government in native hands and the last dynasty run by ethnic Hans.As China was humiliated and oppressed by the rule of the Mongols, the Ming Dynasty rose up out of a peasant rebellion led by Zhu Yuanzhang to preside over the greatest economic and social revolution in China before the modern period. Trade was allowed between China and nations in the west, cash crops were more frequently grown, specialised industries were founded, and the economic growth caused by the privatisation of state industries resulted in a prosperous period that exceeded that of the earlier Song Dynasty.At the end of the Ming Dynasty, shortly before the Manchus overthrew the Ming and established the Qing Dynasty, China’s economy was a period of expansion. New markets were being founded, and merchants were extending their businesses across provincial lines and even into the South China Sea. Establishment of the Ming un der the Hongwu Emperor It had become very apparent that the Yuan Dynasty’s ability to govern, to maintain order in society, to administer principal and local government, and to collect taxes – was eroding well before the middle of the fourteenth century. Agriculture and the economy were in a shambles and rebellion broke out among the hundreds of Reischauer, Edwin Oldfather; Fairbank, John King; Craig, Albert M. (1960) A History of East Asian Civilisation, Vol 1. East Asia: The Great Tradition, George Allen & Unwin Ltd. 2 Mote, Frederick W. (1988) The Rise of the Ming Dynasty 1330 – 1367 in Twitchett, Denis; Fairbank, John K. (eds. ) The Cambridge History of China, Vol 7, The Ming Dynasty, 1368 – 1644, Part 1. Cambridge University Press, p. 11 1 2|P a ge Andrew Paul Stokes thousands of peasants called upon to work on repairing the dykes of the Yellow River.In the 1350s, several rebel leaders, almost all of whom came from the merchant or lower classes, seiz ed cities and set themselves up as kings or even, with just a small amount of territory, proclaimed themselves to be Emperor. The Yuan Emperor no longer seemed to be in control of the situation, and indeed the country, it had been carved up into pieces by rebel warlords. The Ming Dynasty was an age of breakdown in which throughout most of the country the conduct of daily life depended on and ended up on direct recourse to violence.It provides a classic example of the gradual militarisation of Chinese society and, because of that, the struggle among potent rivals to succeed the Mongol (Yuan) regime by imposing, through military force, a successor regime that could claim the Mandate of Heaven. 3 Zhu Yuanzhang, who would later become the founder of the Ming Dynasty, was a peasant. He was the only person from such poor and humble origins ever to found a ruling Chinese dynasty. It is said that a scholar told him he would succeed if he followed three simple rules: a. build strong city wal ls; b. ) gather as much grain in storage as possible; c. ) be slow to assume titles. Zhu followed these rules assiduously. With his army, Zhu slowly conquered the territories of all the warlords whilst carefully watching the government’s armies. By 1368, he has conquered all of southern China; this is the date at which the Ming Dynasty officially begins. He had control of all of China by 1369. June 5, 2011 Ming Emperor Hongwu (1368 – 1398) Emperor Hongwu made an immediate effort to rebuild state infrastructure.He built a long wall around Nanjing, which then became the official capital of the Ming empire (the Yuan had their capital located in Beijing), as well as new palaces and government halls. 4 He enacted a series of policies designed to favour agriculture at the expense of other industries. Aid was given by the state to farmers, also providing them with land and agricultural equipment, as well as a full revision of the ibid. â€Å"Mandate of Heaven† is a tra ditional Chinese philosophical concept concerning the legitimacy of rulers.It is similar to the European concept of the divine right of kings, in that both sought to legitimise rule from divine approval; however, unlike the divine right of kings, the Mandate of Heaven is predicated on the conduct of the ruler in question. The Mandate of Heaven postulates that heaven (Tian) would bless the authority of a just ruler, as defined by the Five Confucian Relationships, but would be displeased with a despotic ruler and would withdraw its mandate, leading to the overthrow of that ruler. The Mandate of Heaven would then transfer to those who would rule best.The mere fact of a leader having been overthrown is itself indication that he has lost the Mandate of Heaven. 4 Ebrey, Patricia Buckley; (1999) The Cambridge Illustrated History of China. Cambridge University Press. pp. 190-1. 3 3|P a ge taxation system. 5 The Ming government abolished the mandatory forced labour by peasants that was used in early dynasties and replaced it with wage labour. A new class of wage labourers sprung up where none had existed before. In Jingde alone, it was reported that there were no less than 300 pottery factories, all operated by wage labourers. According to historian Timothy Brook, the Hongwu Emperor attempted to immobilise society by creating rigid, state-regulated boundaries between villages and larger towns, discouraging trade and travel in society not permitted by the government. 7 He also forcibly moved thousands of wealthy families from the southeast and resettled them around Nanjing, forbidding them to move once they were settled. 8 , In order to better administer the state, the emperor ordered surveys and censuses to be taken and the data gathered in government registers and records. This enabled the central government to regulate taxation.In addition, he made all occupations hereditary in order to further prevent social mobility; he understood, as a former peasant himself, the danger of social mobility. All members of Chinese society were grouped into three large hereditary classes: peasants, craftspeople, and soldiers. To keep track of merchants’ activities, he forced them to register all their goods once a month. 9 It seems his main goals were to attempt to curb the influence of the merchants and landlords, but it turned out that several of his policies would eventually encourage them to amass more wealth.Hongwu’s system of massive relocation was seen as being too oppressive and encouraged people’s desire to escape the harsh taxes that were imposed on the wealthy by becoming itinerant retailers, peddlers, and migrant workers finding tenant landowners who would rent them space to farm and labour upon. 10 By the middle of the Ming era, subsequent emperors had abandoned Hongwu’s unpopular relocation system and instead entrusted local officials to document the numbers of migrant workers and their earnings in order to bring in mor e revenue. 1 Hongwu believed that agriculture was the core basis of the economy, Hongwu favoured that industry over all else, including that of merchants. However, after his death, most of his policies were reversed by his successors. By the late Ming, the state ended up losing power to the very merchants which Hongwu had wanted to restrict. Andrew Paul Stokes June 5, 2011 5 Mote, Frederick W. (1988), â€Å"Introduction†, in Twitchett, Denis; Mote, Frederick W. (eds. ), The Cambridge History of China, Vol 7, The Ming Dynasty, 1368 – 1644, Part 1. Cambridge University Press, p. 6 Li, Bo; Zheng, Yin. (2001) 5000 years of Chinese history. Inner Mongolian People's Publishing House. pp. 994-7 7 Brook, Timothy. (1998) The Confusions of Pleasure: Commerce and Culture in Ming China, Berkeley: University of California Press. p. 19 8 ibid. pp. 28-29 9 ibid. pp. 65-67 10 ibid. pp. 27-28 11 ibid. p. 97 4|P a ge Andrew Paul Stokes The Agricultural Revolution. June 5, 2011 Through s everal of China’s dynastic periods, the economy, like most pre-modern economies was agriculturally based with all other sectors either servicing it or drawing materials from it.During the Song dynasty the Chinese developed the world's most productive agricultural system. Mongol domination and the Ming dynasty's rise to power left much of China devastated and parts uninhabited. 12 The Hongwu Emperor had as one of his central tasks the rebuilding of the Chinese economy which had been devastated by the excesses of the Mongol rulers. Between 1370 and 1398, China experienced a revolution in agriculture unparalleled in history. Hongwu revived the agricultural sector to create self-sufficient communities that would not need to rely on commerce, which he assumed would only remain in urban areas. 3 The surplus created from this revival encouraged farmers to make profits by selling their goods in regional urban markets. 14 Alongside other crops, rice was grown on a large scale with the introduction of Champa Rice from Southeast Asia. Population growth and the decrease in fertile land made it necessary that farmers produce cash crops to earn a living, and as the countryside and urban areas became more connected through commerce, households in rural areas began taking on traditionally urban specialisations, such as the production of silk and cotton, as well as producing fabric dyes and growing sugar cane. 5 The Cambridge History of China states about the Ming that: â€Å"The commercialisation of Ming society within the context of expanding communications may be regarded as a distinguishing aspect of the history of this dynasty. In the matter of commodity production and circulation, the Ming marked a turning point in Chinese history, both in the scale at which goods were being Graham, James. (Unknown Date). â€Å"Quantitative Growth, Qualitative Standstill: China's Economic Situation 1368-1800†. From HistoryOrb. com website. http://www. historyorb. com/asia/ china_economy. shtml (accessed 03/06/2011). 13 Brook, Timothy. 1998) The Confusions of Pleasure: Commerce and Culture in Ming China, Berkeley: University of California Press. p. 69 14 ibid. pp. 65-66 15 ibid. pp. 113-117 12 5|P a ge Andrew Paul Stokes produced for the market, and in the nature of the economic relations that governed commercial exchange. † 16 June 5, 2011 The Yongle Emperor, the Second Founding†¦ Hongwu’s successor and grandson assumed the throne as the Jianwen Emperor (1398–1402) after the death of Hongwu in 1398. After a short period of civil war, he was overthrown by his uncle, Zhu Di, who assumed the throne under the title the Yongle Emperor.The reign of the Yongle Emperor is considered by many to be ‘a second founding’ of the Ming Dynasty since he had reversed many of his father’s policies. 17 Also, during his reign, China had recovered many of the territories lost during earlier dynasties, as well as those lost durin g the much earlier Five Dynasties & Ten Kingdoms era (907–960AD). One year after assuming the throne, he announced that the new capital and power base will be moved to back to Beijing and a new palatial complex to be built, and the current capital, Nanjing, was to be demoted to a secondary capital.Construction began on what is now known as The Forbidden City in 1407. Construction of the new city took place between 1406 to 1420, employing hundreds of thousands of workers daily. 18 The Yongle Emperor also Ming Emperor Yongle 1402-1424 initiated many other grand building projects, such as the restoration of the Grand canal, which had lain dilapidated for many decades. The reason this restoration was important was to solve the perennial problem of shipping grain north to the capital.Shipping the annual four million shi 19 was made difficult because the previous method of shipping through the East China Sea or by various inland canal routes that included the loading and unloading the Heijdra, Martin. (1988) â€Å"The Socio-Economic Development of Rural China During the Ming†, in Mote, Frederick W. ; Twitchett, Denis (eds. ), Cambridge History of China: The Ming Dynasty 1368-1644, Part One. Cambridge University Press. p. 580 17 Atwell, William S. (2002) â€Å"Time, Money, and the Weather: Ming China and the Great Depression of the MidFifteenth Century,† The Journal of Asian Studies (Volume 61, Number 1). p. 83-113. 18 Ebrey, Patricia Buckley; Walthall, Anne; Palais, James B. (2006) East Asia: A Cultural, Social, and Political History. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company. p. 272 19 Ancient Chinese measurement. One shi is equal to about 107 litres. 16 6|P a ge Andrew Paul Stokes grain onto several different barges was proven to be rather inefficient and time consuming. 20 June 5, 2011 To a certain extent, the Ming state itself facilitated the movement of goods to market by relocating the capital to Beijing in the far north, away from the rich and pro sperous rice growing areas of Southern China.This resulted in a natural market for the demands of goods in the north, if for no other reason than to feed the imperial household and court. This was one of the reasons why it was so important to keep the Grand Canal in working order. It was a major conduit for grain, salt, and other important commodities. Any taxes that were paid in kind were paid in grain, which was shipped along the Grand Canal. Thus, control of the Grand Canal was of critical importance to the Ming government. It was under the reign of Emperor Yongle that the Chinese first began to trade and interact with Europeans on any significant scale.The presence of Europeans would eventually prove to be the most contentious aspect of modern Chinese history, but during the Ming, European trade greatly expanded Chinese economic life, particularly in the southern regions. Through most of their history, the Chinese have concentrated largely on land, commerce, and exploration. How ever, the Yongle Emperor began to sponsor a series of naval expeditions during 1405 and the years that followed. The reasoning for these naval expeditions are varied, but the Yongle emperor wanted to expand trade with other countries and had a taste for imported and exotic goods.Merchants and Overseas Trade. From 1405 till 1433, the Chinese imperial eunuch Zheng He led seven ocean expeditions for the Yongle Emperor that are unmatched in world history. During this time, Zheng He travelled all the way from China to Southeast Asia and then on to India, all the way to major trading sites on India’s southwest coast. In his fourth voyage, he travelled to the Persian Gulf. But for the last three voyages, Zheng went even further, all the way to the east coast of Africa. These expeditions made China the world’s greatest commercial naval power in the world at the time, far superior to any European nation. 0 Early 17th century Chinese woodblock print, thought to represent Zheng H e's ships Brook, Timothy. (1998) The Confusions of Pleasure: Commerce and Culture in Ming China. Berkeley: University of California Press. pp. 46-7. 7|P a ge Andrew Paul Stokes One purpose of these lavish expeditions was to overwhelm foreign peoples and to convince them beyond any doubt the extent and grandeur of Ming power, but more so, it was to increase China’s contacts in these areas and establishing stateregulated trade there. 21 The Ming government constantly intervened in foreign trade.Under the reigns of Emperors Hongwu, Yongle, and Jiajing, foreign trade by private merchants was completely prohibited. In reality, the bans on this trade never succeeded in anything but preventing the government from taxing private merchants. Private trade continued in secret because the coast was impossible to patrol and police adequately, and because local officials and scholar-gentry families in the coastal provinces actually colluded with merchants to build ships and trade. The smug gling was mainly with Japan and Southeast Asia, and it picked up after silver lodes were discovered in Japan in the early 1500s.Since silver was the main form of money in China, lots of people were willing to take the risk of sailing to Japan or Southeast Asia to sell products for Japanese silver, or to invite Japanese traders to come to the Chinese coast and trade in secret ports. Something that can be seen in Chinese society before the Ming dynasty is the general disgust and disapproval of merchants and foreign salesmen, but during the mid and later parts of the Ming dynasty, merchants brought along a large amount of social revolution and change. By the 15th Century, the Ming had abolished the restriction on private overseas trade and Ming merchants prospered.An extensive expansion of trade followed with only trade to nations at war with China prohibited. 22 At that time, Denis Twitchett claims that China, apart from being a lucrative market for Ming Paper Money Europeans, was the largest and wealthiest 23 nation on earth. The most important parts of all this trade was the importation of silver. The governments of both Hongwu and Zhengtong (1435-1449) attempted to cut the flow of silver into the economy in favour of paper currency, yet mining the June 5, 2011 21 22 Li, Bo; Zheng, Yin. (2001) 5000 Years of Chinese History.Inner Mongolian Peoples’ Publishing House. p. 996 ibid. p. 996 23 Huang, Ray. (1988), â€Å"The Ming Fiscal Administration†, in Twitchett, Denis; Fairbank, John K. (eds. ), The Cambridge History of China, Volume 8: The Ming Dynasty 1398-1644, Part Two. Cambridge University Press. pp. 110-113. 8|P a ge precious metal simply became a lucrative illegal pursuit practiced by many. 24 Emperor Hongwu seemed unaware of the situation of economic inflation, even as he continued to hand out multitudes of paper currency as awards; by 1425, paper currency was only worth around 0. 014% its original value.Eventually, the state stopped issuing paper currency because the population had lost faith in it. 25 Andrew Paul Stokes June 5, 2011 By the late sixteenth century, China was intimately a part of the growing global economy. The Chinese were trading actively with the Portuguese, the Dutch, and the Japanese, who all traded silver for Chinese silks and porcelain. The Ming shipped silks to Manila in the Philippines and there traded with the Spanish for silver, firearms, and American goods such as sugar, potatoes, and tobacco. Chinese Ming blue and white porcelain became all the rage in Europe and was highly prized.The Dutch East India Company alone handled the trade of 6 million porcelain items from China to Europe between the years 1602 to 1682. 26 Patricia Buckley Ebrey writes of the considerable size of commercial transactions on the silk goods traded to Europe: â€Å"In one case a galleon to the Spanish territories in the New World carried over 50’000 pairs of silk stockings. In return China imported mostly silv er from Peruvian and Mexican mines transported via Manila. Chinese merchants were active in these trading ventures, and many emigrated to such places as the Philippines and Borneo to take advantage of the new commercial opportunities. 27 In 1435, however, court scholars wrongly convinced the Hongwu emperor that the decline of the dynasty would be signalled by a taste in foreign wares, so China greatly contracted its commercial and maritime expansion it had begun so auspiciously. They would later be renewed under the rule of the Yongle Emperor, but again they were curtailed after the death of Zheng He. The situations of missions coming to an end resulted in the eviction of Ming troops from Vietnam which brought significant costs to the Ming treasury. 8 The lavish expense of the sailing fleets with high eunuch power at court was another big factor (Zheng He himself was also a eunuch as were many other naval commanders), so the halting of funding for these ventures was seen as a means to curtail further eunuch influence and power at court and in high positions. 29 There was also the great threat of a revival of Mongol power in the north which drew much of the attention away from other matters; to face this threat, a massive amount of funds and manpower was Brook, Timothy. (1998) The Confusions of Pleasure: Commerce and Culture in Ming China.Berkeley: University of California Press. pp. 68-69 25 Fairbank, John K. ; Goldman, Merle. (2006) China: A New History. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. p. 134. 26 ibid. p. 206 27 Ebrey, Patricia Buckley; (1999) The Cambridge Illustrated History of China. Cambridge University Press. p. 211. 28 Fairbank, John K. ; Goldman, Merle. (2006) China: A New History. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, p. 138 29 ibid. pp. 138-139 24 9|P a ge Andrew Paul Stokes used to restore, rebuild, and extend the Great Wall. 0 Many scholars and historians believe that Yongle’s move of the capital from Nanjing to Beiji ng in the north was largely in response of the need to keep a closer eye on the Mongols in the north and to better prepare to defend. June 5, 2011 Economic and Dynastic Collapse. There were numerous causes for the decline and fall of the Ming despite the auspicious start of the dynasty under the Hongwu emperor. The most immediate and direct cause of the fall was the rebellions in the seventeenth century and the aggressive military expansion of the Manchu armies.The decline of the dynasty, however, began much sooner, perhaps even as early as the initial establishment of the dynasty. At the end of the Ming Dynasty, what is now referred to as the ‘Little Ice Age’ 31 severely curtailed Chinese agriculture in the Northern provinces, famine, drought, and other disaster befell Northern China, bringing peasant revolts. The inability to collect taxes resulted in armies not being paid. Many of these troops joined the rebels making the situation worse.During the last years of Empe ror Wanli’s reign, and those of his two successors, an economic crisis developed that was centred on a sudden widespread lack of the empire’s chief medium of exchange: silver. Through acts of piracy staged by the Protestant Dutch and the English against the Catholic empires of Spain and Portugal in order to weaken their global economic power, the flow of silver into China slowed. 32 The only flow of silver into China came from the illegal smuggling from Mexico and Peru across the Pacific in favour of shipping directly from Spain o Manila. In 1639, the new Tokugawa regime of Japan shut down most of its foreign trade with Europe, causing a further halt of silver coming into China†¦ though the Japanese silver still flowed in small amounts. 33 The occurrence of these events at the same time caused a dramatic spike in the value of silver and made the payment of taxes nearly impossible in most provinces. For peasants this was an economic disaster, since they paid taxes in silver while conducting local trade and selling their crops with copper coins. 4 Famine, as well as tax increases, widespread military desertions, flooding, the inability of the government to properly manage irrigation ibid. p. 139 Little Ice Age – was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period. While not a true ice age, the term was introduced into scientific literature by Francois E. Matthes in 1939. It is conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries. 32 Spence, Jonathan D. (1999) The Search for Modern China: Second Edition. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. p. 19 33 Brook, Timothy. 1998) The Confusions of Pleasure: Commerce and Culture in Ming China. Berkeley: University of California Press. p. 208 34 Spence, Jonathan D. (1999) The Search for Modern China: Second Edition. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. pp. 20-21. 31 30 10 | P a g e and flood control projects, caused the widespread loss of life and suffering. 3 5 Due to lack of resources, the central government didn’t have the means to mitigate the effects of these calamities. Andrew Paul Stokes June 5, 2011 The Ming Dynasty's economy was always in disarray because of the lack of knowledge on how to run an effective treasury.Paper money removed from circulation and was replaced with coinage, which eventually lost most of their value due to counterfeiting. However, since there were not enough coins in circulation, counterfeiting became a massive problem. At this point, the provinces were required to mint their own coins; unfortunately, some of them added lead to the coins, which depleted their value. Due to the abundance of counterfeit coins, their value again declined. This coin problem was amplified by an increasing need for money due to the growth of trade, and the threat of military campaigns that proved very costly.Chongzhen, The Last Emperor. During the rule of the final Ming emperor, the Chongzhen Emperor, the situation just b egan to worsen. Chongzhen tried to rule by himself and did his best to try and salvage the dynasty, correcting all the mistakes of those who ruled previously, but it seemed it was too little too late. After years of internal corruption and an almost empty treasury, it became almost impossible to find capable ministers to fill important government posts. It also didn’t help that Chongzhen was incredibly suspicious and mistrusting of the few skilled subordinates that he did have.In 1644, the rebels under the command of Li Zicheng took Beijing, ending the Ming rule in the North. Rather than face capture, humiliation, and possible execution at the hands of the newly proclaimed Shun Dynasty 36, Chongzhen arranged Ming Emperor Chongzhen (1627-1644) a feast and gathered all the members of the imperial household, aside from his sons. Using a sword, he killed everyone there. ibid. p. 21 Shun Dynasty – was an imperial dynasty created in the brief lapse from Ming to Qing rule in China. The dynasty was founded in Xi'an on 8 February 1644, the first day of the lunar year, by Li Zicheng, the leader of a large peasant rebellion.Li, however, only went by the title of King (? ), not Emperor ( ). The capture of Beijing by the Shun forces in April 1644 marked the end of the Ming dynasty, but Li Zicheng failed to solidify his mandate: in late May 1644, he was defeated at the Battle of Shanhai Pass by the joint forces of Ming general Wu Sangui and Manchu prince Dorgon. When he fled back to Beijing in early June, Li finally proclaimed himself emperor of China and left the capital in a hurry. The Shun dynasty ended with Li's death in 1645. 36 35 11 | P a g e Andrew Paul StokesEveryone died except his daughter Princess Changping. Chongzhen then fled to Jingshan Hill and committed suicide by hanging himself from a tree in the garden. 37 Regimes loyal to the Ming throne continued to reign in southern China until 1662. June 5, 2011 Conclusion. So in conclusion, during the Ming Dynasty, China saw perhaps the greatest change and rebirth in their history. The Ming Empire found the perfect balance of empirical power and Confucianism, culture and technology were revolutionised, allowing the expansion of wealth trade and nationalism.Political implements and modification had contoured China into a strong and supple empire, extending its fingers south to Vietnam and north to Manchuria. Combining typical Confucian methods of governance, a strong empirical head, and an extended base of power amongst court eunuchs, Ming China successfully rehabilitated the greatness of the Tang and Han dynasties. It was the world’s largest economy of its age. It was also the most powerful and largest military power in all of Asia. Science, economy and military strength from the early Ming Dynasty onwards culminated in the greatest age of maritime exploration in Chinese History. 8 Economically, the Ming Dynasty was a period during which the feudal society began to show th e declining trend while the concept of capitalism started to originate. In agriculture, both the food output and the implements of production surpassed that of earlier dynasties. The most spectacular advancement in Ming China probably was the evolution of maritime exploration which opened China up to the world†¦ albeit briefly. The increased knowledge of the seas and the navigational tools aided the Chinese in forging an empire that could trade with places half the world away.But, inexperience and neglect by the Ming rulers contributed greatly to the downfall of the dynasty, as well as corruption of the court officials and the domination of the eunuchs inside the court. If, for instance, instead of turning to eunuchs to help check on Court officials, the emperors turned to his immediate relatives or maternal relations, it could also have led to, as history of Han and Jin dynasties had shown, factionalism that weakened the empire. Instead of eunuchs being the problem, imperial r elations would have been the problem.The government officials were cruel and extorted unreasonable taxes. The combination of natural calamity and human oppression drove the peasants to a revolt. The disasters of Ming dynasty can be allocated such: 70% human error. The officials were greedy and extorted taxes from the victims. The state increased taxes without thought of the disasters, eventually leading to peasant revolt. The Ming dynasty could have decisively chose policies to alleviate suffering after suppressing Li Zicheng’s first revolt: make necessary changes to the Spence, Jonathan D. 1999) The Search for Modern China: Second Edition. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. p. 25 38 Brook, Timothy. (1998) The Confusions of Pleasure: Commerce and Culture in Ming China, Berkeley: University of California Press. 37 12 | P a g e Andrew Paul Stokes government officials and taxation policies, allocate the wealth to aid the victims and to pacify the masses, then Li Zicheng’s movement would be unable to attract anyone. The fall of the capital to the peasant army (or any other army) would not have occurred. June 5, 2011 Bibliography Atwell, William S. 2002) â€Å"Time, Money, and the Weather: Ming China and the Great Depression of the Mid-Fifteenth Century†, the Journal of Asian Studies, 61 (1): 81-113, Cambridge University Press Brook, Timothy. (1998) The Confusions of Pleasure: Commerce and Culture in Ming China, Berkeley: University of California Press. Ebrey, Patricia Buckley; Walthall, Anne; Palais, James B. (2006) East Asia: A Cultural, Social, and Political History. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company. Ebrey, Patricia Buckley; (1999) The Cambridge Illustrated History of China. Cambridge University Press Fairbank, John K. nd Goldman, Merle. (2006) China: A New History. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press Graham, James. (Unknown Date). â€Å"Quantitative Growth, Qualitative Standstill: From www. HistoryOrb. com China's Economic Situati on 1368-1800†. website. http://www. historyorb. com/asia/china_economy. shtml (accessed 03/06/2011). Heijdra, Martin. (1988) â€Å"The Socio-Economic Development of Rural China During the Ming†, in Mote, Frederick W. and Twitchett, Denis (eds. ), Cambridge History of China: The Ming Dynasty 1368-1644, Part One, Cambridge University Press.Huang, Ray. (1988) â€Å"The Ming Fiscal Administration†, in Twitchett, Denis and Fairbank, John K. (eds. ) the Cambridge History of China, Volume 8: The Ming Dynasty 1398-1644, Part Two, Cambridge University Press. Li, Bo and Zheng, Yin. (2001) 5000 Years of Chinese History, Inner Mongolian Peoples’ Publishing House. 13 | P a g e Andrew Paul Stokes Mote, Frederick W. (1988), â€Å"Introduction†, in Twitchett, Denis and Mote, Frederick W. (eds. ) The Cambridge History of China, Vol 7, The Ming Dynasty, 1368 – 1644, Part 1. Cambridge University Press.Mote, Frederick W. (1988) â€Å"The Rise of the Ming Dynast y 1330 – 1367†, in Twitchett, Denis and Fairbank, John K. (eds. ) The Cambridge History of China, Vol 7, The Ming Dynasty, 1368 – 1644, Part 1. Cambridge University Press. Reischauer, Edwin Oldfather; Fairbank, John King and Craig, Albert M. (1960) A History of East Asian Civilisation, Vol 1. East Asia: The Great Tradition, George Allen & Unwin Ltd. Spence, Jonathan D. (1999) The Search for Modern China: Second Edition. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. June 5, 2011 14 | P a g e

Mkt 421 Week 3 Kudler Paper

Marketing Research: Kudler Fine Foods Susan Karr MKT 421 October 1, 2012 Ricci Rizzo Marketing Research: Kudler Fine Foods In order to succeed, it is fundamental that businesses satisfy consumers’ needs (and desires) for goods and services. Appropriate market research provides the data necessary to understand those needs and respond to them effectively and profitably. Kudler Fine Foods (KFF) has performed market research in the past. Some of that research has been helpful; some has not. Additional market research is needed for KFF to reach a larger share of the market and increase profitability.Kudler Fine Foods is a gourmet grocery store. KFF sells meat, produce, cheese, and wine. They also provide catering services. KFF has targeted two market segments, high-income consumers and gourmands (gourmet food enthusiasts) (Kudler Fine Foods, 2011, Sales Plan 2007 webpage). These markets were selected based on the strengths owner Kathy Kudler brings to her organization. Gourmet food is Kathy’s passion. KFF has used historical data, customer surveys, and feedback from its sales force to discover what its target market wants.Observing patterns in historical data and extending those patterns to predict the future, or trend extrapolation, is the â€Å"best-known statistical method† for predicting future sales (Kerin, Hartley, & Rudelius, 2011, p. 215). Salesforce survey forecasts, such as the feedback from managers at the operations review meetings on the sample offerings Kathy is considering, are another logical approach to discovering what the target customer wants (Kerin, Hartley, & Rudelius, 2011, p. 215). KFF’s customer surveys are an additional tool used to fine-tune what their customers (new and existing) really want.The company has begun to track customer purchase behavior to forecast which products and services are most likely to be in demand and when specifically (year-round, seasonally, holidays, etc. ). KFF is considering a ddressing changes in consumer expectations in the changing e-commerce arena (KFF currently has an informational website that consumers can visit). KFF believes quality and specialty items, especially new ones, are most important to its customers. Kudler Fine Foods has no direct competition with other gourmet grocery stores in their current locations.Kathy chose the locations for this reason and for their accessibility to KFF’s target high income consumers. KFF has been emphasizing direct mail promotions to high income zip codes, word-of-mouth advertising via satisfied customers, and personal sales promotions both in-store and at various community events. Although Kudler Fine Foods has chosen two very specific markets to target, a more thorough understanding of those target markets is needed to deliver what they want. One of KFF’s target markets is gourmands.KFF’s research focus in this area has been primarily on the supply side: Kathy monitors what products the competition is offering, what products are advertised in gourmet magazines, and what products are shown at gourmet conventions and websites. To discover what gourmands want, KFF also needs to research the demand side. Mining on-line blogs and gourmet food forums are two ways KFF can increase its understanding of what gourmands want. Customer surveys, such as the ones KFF currently uses in-store, can also be revised and used both in-store and on-line. Specific areas to be researched include: * What products do they want? A changing selection of items or traditional items? * The newest items available or a more specific selection, such as local artisan wines and cheeses? * When do they want it? * Are there different times when certain items are desired more or less? * What do they want over the holiday season? Or during the summer versus the winter? * Where / how do they want it delivered? * Do they want to shop for it and prepare it themselves? If so, do they want to be able to shop on-line? * Do they want to attend classes to learn how to use the products? * Are they interested in on-line tutorials? * How much do they want the product to cost? Note: Based on answers to KFF’s 2011 Customer Survey, price is one area where additional research is vital. More than 50% of respondents did not feel the merchandise was a â€Å"good value for the money† (Kudler Fine Foods, 2011, 2011 Market Survey webpage). * What do they expect to pay? * What are they willing to pay? (Rizzo, 2012). Additional research is needed to more effectively reach KFF’s other target market, high income consumers. Currently KFF segments this market geographically based on zip code areas determined by various factors to be â€Å"higher-income† areas (based on real estate prices, for example).Although somewhat targeted, this promotional method uses the â€Å"shotgun† approach: direct mail is â€Å"blasted† over an area in hopes of reaching the target (Respon se Targeted Marketing, 2010). Past sales data (information on customers who spent over a certain amount or purchased large quantities) can be mined to determine where they live and how much they make. This demographic information can then be used to procure or generate lists of similar people. Using direct mail promotions, the target market can be contacted more effectively. It is important that KFF take measures to track the results of marketing campaigns.For example, if a direct mail postcard with a promotional offer is sent out, tracking sales generated from that offer will tell KFF if they are reaching their target or wasting their time and need to re-aim. This also means asking customers directly how they found out about KFF or what brought them into the store. Again, updating the current Customer Survey is a simple way to accomplish this. Kudler Fine Foods can improve its marketing strategy by focusing on three competitive intelligence priorities: 1. Understanding the consumer environment 2. Assessing and tracking competitor’s actions 3.Providing early warnings of opportunities and threats Several of the recommendations for increasing understanding of the target market will also help KFF understand the consumer environment better. Increased utilization of internet technology, such as implementing on-line surveys and monitoring gourmet consumer blogs and forums, is simple and cost-effective. Continuing to monitor competitors as Kathy has in the past is also important. To prioritize this, KFF’s department heads and managers can contribute to intelligence gathering, paying particular attention to competition, customers, and trends relevant to their areas of expertise.Most of this information can be gathered during customer and employee interactions; some will require research via internet, magazine, and the gourmet food community, even visiting competitors’ stores. Communication is vital to provide KFF with early warning of threats and opportunities. Kathy visits the stores personally: Discussing consumers and competitors, not just products and services, with employees and managers during these visits will ensure opportunities, as well as threats, are revealed in a timely manner.Kudler Fine Foods has begun to develop a foundation for successfully marketing its products and services. It is important that KFF perform additional research in some areas and continue to modify and improve on its marketing strategy. By updating it Customer Survey, capitalizing on information freely available on the internet and taking advantage of information previously gathered, KFF can reach a larger share of the gourmet foods retail market and increase profitability. References Kerin, R. , Hartley, S. & Rudelius, W. (2011). Marketing (10th ed. ). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.Kudler Fine Foods (2011). Retrieved from https://ecampus. phoenix. edu/secure/aapd/cist/vop/Business/Kudler2/intranet/sales-plan. asp Response Targeted Marketing (2010). Shotgun Marketing Versus Targeted Marketing: 8 Steps To Focus Your Energies And Get More Sales For Less Investment. Retrieved from http://www. responsetargetedmarketing. com/2010/02/05/shotgun-marketing-versus-targeted-marketing-8-steps-to-focus-your-energies-and-get-more-sales-for-less-investment/ Rizzo, R. (2012). Marketing Process. Retrieved from http://www. screencast. com/t/R65nHl3j8ARl

Role of Television in everyday lives, particularly in Childrens lives Essay

Role of Television in everyday lives, particularly in Childrens lives - Essay Example Despite the fact that there are differences with regard to the contribution of the media to aggressive behaviors, research has shown that there exists tangible evidence to conclude that the behavior of some people may be affected through exposure to certain types of violent media particularly television. Violent media have been found to contribute to very many forms of violent acts in the society. The recent technological advancements, the reluctance by the policy makers to regulate the televised programs and the commitment by the society to exercise their freedom of speech has only escalated the exposure of violent images to young children and this is happening at a very alarming rate. Normally, violent TV programs could impact people in all age groups including adolescents and push them to indulge in violence; however the age factor and the resultant mental immaturity make the children a more gullible target group.

PERSUASIVE WRITING Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

PERSUASIVE WRITING - Essay Example Among such organizations is the one called â€Å"Feed the Children, Inc.†. It was founded in 1979 in Oklahoma City, and today it works all over the world. As it is mentioned on the official website of â€Å"Feed the Children†, the organization â€Å"exists to end child hunger† and has the mission of â€Å"providing hope and resources for those without life essentials† (Feed the Children, Inc., 2014). Overall, the focus of the organization is to deliver food, drugs, clothes and other necessities to children and their families who lack them all over the globe. Every person can lend a helpful hand and support children in need as the organization presents a range of unique opportunities for those who wish to help out, such as sponsoring a child, volunteering, and organizing special projects (â€Å"Feed the Children, Inc., 2014). The first unique way every person can help a kid in need presented by â€Å"Feed the Children† is called â€Å"Sponsor a Child†. The essence of this option is that the organization gives the opportunity for those who want to be engaged in a program to change a life of a particular child. As the website goes, â€Å"for only $30 a month, you can have a powerful impact in one child’s life; you’ll stop her stomach from growling, give her clean water and send her to school† (Feed the Children, Inc., 2014). For children who live in the developing countries, even thirty dollars can be of a great support and can â€Å"help rescue a boy or a girl from the enemies of childhood – hunger, disease and poverty† (Feed the Children, Inc., 2014). This option allows searching and choosing a child one wants to help; by this, one’s support becomes not only more personalized but more controlled as well because a sponsor has an opportunity to commun icate with the kid he/she decides to help through letters, photos and important information as well as regular updates on the child’s health and well-being. In a course of one month,

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Lubna - Case Study Example Its ability to focus on to continue to move and expand itself without actually facing any resistance to change is its main attribute in achieving this level of success. Role models offer real life examples of how great people actually accomplish things and what traits and characteristics they portray when carrying out their roles and responsibilities. Female role models may be required more in a society like Saudi Arabia which is a close society and better and more improved participation by women can encourage other women to become part of the mainstream society too. It is however, important to note that both male and female role models are required for Saudi Arabian society to move ahead in positive manner. The organization culture during the times of Olyan was based upon hard work and dedication while maintaining the attitude of doing things differently. The overall organizational structure therefore was designed in a manner to delegate work and empower employees to engage in hard work and develop integrity. The major advantage of such organizational structure is that it empowers employees to take risks and become accountable for what they do. For example, use of integrated communication and information technology to connect employees of Olyan Group at global level indicates the ability of the organizational structure to actually develop competence and accountability while at the same time foster team work and delegation. Under Lubna’s leadership, the overall organizational structure has remained more or less same however; there has been a dramatic change in the organizational culture. The culture has become more open and empowering with focus on accommodating women and hardworking employees. One necessary change in the way Group was organized was to restructure the structure in a manner to achieve agility. This new structure allows organization to respond to new changes in more rapid manner and with more agility in focus. It is however, critical to

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Ethnographic Comparison - Essay Example The discussion focuses on studying human behavior and culture using multiple ethnographic accounts. The three societies taken for comparison are the southern Ethiopian society, Chinese society, and Cherokee, a Native American society. The analysis provides background information of all the three societies along with discussing the specific aspect of cultural change within these societies. A vivid comparison and contrast between the societies is done in relation to the cultural change among women and standard of living. The realities of life and human behavior in relation to the cultural change in these societies are also addressed. Furthermore, the discussion also examines some of the social problems and public policy issues that are apparent in these societies. Ethiopia, a sub-Saharan country in Africa, is considered to be home to one of the oldest known human societies. During the prehistoric period, Hamitic people from Asia Minor and Semitic traders from Arabia migrated to this region. Being a multi-cultural and multi-ethnic society, it comprised of different cultural and geo-political boundaries, but with the Orthodox Church mainly dominating the cultural, political, and social life of the population. From the ancient times, the Chinese society is one with rich traditions. The countrys civilization is home to around 55 ethnic minorities including 14 Taiwanese aborigine groups, Shaoshu Minzu, RPC nationals, and the Han majority (Johnson, 2014). With the recent economic reforms and policies, China has transformed into a stronger economy. The Cherokee Indians, one among the tribes of Native Americans, are expected to have lived in and around the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians Island. Ethnographers have recorded that these tribes migrated to south in ancient times from the Great Lakes region along with the Iroquoian people. The comparison of culture among these three societies provides valuable

Against Green Energy Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Against Green Energy - Essay Example The cost of subsidizing green energy is therefore spread to individual and corporate taxpayers. The economic condition is likely to worsen due to the fact that generational effects of green energy utilize funds that could be pumped into other developmental projects. Green energy subsidies suppress sustainable development goals and objectives. This is more so when these subsidies increase energy consumption. With increased consumption of energy, wastes from such consumption would increase negative effects on the environment. The process is therefore prone to exacerbate harmful energy effects on environmental welfare. Burden to maintain low pollution levels in the environment is likely to increase and government spending doubles in that case (Douglas F, et al. 2000, p.60–66). Subsidies will be made available for green energy, but government and corporate efforts to combat environmental pollution will remain unchanged. Organizational operating costs should not be covered through subsidies. However, this has been the characteristic phenomenon in the use of subsidies. Organizations that formulate green energy projects and want to implement them seeks for subsidies. Rather than assisting companies to implement such projects, the subsidies should be used for the purposes of enhancing accessibility to contemporary sources of energy. The focus should be directed to households whose access to modern sources is limited as well as to those who cannot afford it. Since this is not the case, subsidies for green energy are argued against. World Bank and World Resource Institute have as well argued against subsidies for green energy in the same context (Brown, 2006, p.

HEALTH COMMUNITIES, HEALTH CITIES Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words

HEALTH COMMUNITIES, HEALTH CITIES - Essay Example Planning of cities in most countries has been linked to heath status of the people who inhabit such cities. In other words planning of cities directly or indirectly affects heath status of the population in the area. Towns together with cities affect heath in different ways that goes beyond the presence of health services in the area. Generally, the planning of urban and sometimes rural areas normally affects and shapes people’s life choices and at same time has a strong bearing on heath outcomes. According to Fredsgaard, Cave and Bond (2009) urban planning and the subsequent urban forms affect people’s choice of where to live, how to travel to work and school, how to clean the air and water and also what facilities people can us. In most cases, poor designing of cities is seen to result to poor heath that in turn put heavy burden on communities and health services (Fredsgaard, Cave, and Bond 2009). The extent to which an individual or group is able on the hand, to realize aspirations and satisfy needs on the other hand to change or cope with the environment. At the same time, health is seen as a resource for everyday life, not the object of living: it is a positive concept emphasizing social and personal resources as well as physical capabilities (WHO 1984 cited in Fredsgaard, Cave and Bond, 2009). In order to regulate and plan land use in both urban and rural areas it has become paramount for organizations to carry out assessment of health issues in relations to aspects of environment, social, economy and demographic aspects. Therefore carrying out assessment of the health has been done through a technique known as health impact assessment (HIA). According to World Health Organization (WHO) definition, HIA is construed to constitute â€Å"combination of procedures, methods and tools that systematically judges the potential and sometimes unintended effects of a policy, plan, programme or project on the health of

International Marketing Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words - 12

International Marketing - Essay Example omotion of goods and services and exchange of such goods and services among two or more international entities in order to satisfy organizational objectives (Arnold, 2003). In this paper, the international marketing strategies and practices of the leading US multinational carbonated beverage company PepsiCo Inc. will be analysed. The company is one of the largest producers of soft drinks in the whole world. Apart from carbonated soft drinks, the product basket of PepsiCo Inc. is diversified with various foods and snacks, packaged drinking water and fruit juices. The products of the company have reached more than 200 countries in the world. Such widespread business has enabled PepsiCo Inc. to capture the second largest position in the world in terms of revenue and in North America, it is the largest. The paper will explore the international marketing and operational strategies of this world-famous beverage company, PepsiCo Inc. In the next segment, the motivation of PepsiCo Inc for expanding their business internationally and accordingly differentiated marketing, sales and distribution strategies adapted by the company will be examined in details. As mentioned earlier, due to the liberalization of economies, many companies are showing their interest in expanding their business internationally and maximizing their profitability through serving a large number of customers beyond the home country. In fact, observations of the big multinational companies have indicated that immense business opportunities are lying in the emerging nations in terms of potential customer base and availability of cheap resources, utilizing which, the companies can be benefitted to a great extent (Johnson, Whittington and Scholes, 2011). The reasons behind PepsiCo Inc to participate in internationalization process are as follows. PepsiCo Inc has been operating in the beverage industry in its home market, United States since 1965 and has evolved as one of the leading companies in the

Shaping the Character and Effect of Financial Services Regulation Essay

Shaping the Character and Effect of Financial Services Regulation - Essay Example For instance, it provides credit to support growth, provides the liquidity needed for the economy to function, and offers the important risk management services2. In its role of credit provision, financial institutions have fueled economic activity by allowing businesses to invest beyond their cash at hand, household to purchase homes without necessarily saving the entire cost in advance, and also allow the government to smoothen out their spending by mitigating the cyclical pattern of tax revenues and to invest in infrastructure development3. In its role of liquidity provision, financial institutions usually offer protection against the unexpected need for cash. They are usually the direct providers of liquidity both through offering demand deposits that can be withdrawn any time and by offering lines of credit4. They are also at the core of the financial markets, offering to buy and sell securities and related products at need, in large volumes, and with relatively modest transaction costs5. In its role of providing risk assessment services, financial institutions allow businesses and household to pool their risks from exposure to financial market and commodity price risks, which are usually provided through derivative transactions6. Even though they have often gotten a bad name due to excesses in the run-up to the financial crisis, they still offer valuable risk management services through their core derivative activities. Some activities and roles of financial institutions if remain unchecked can lead to excess funds that are created by these institutions. This necessitated the need for financial regulation.  

Australia Pre-Primary Education Industry Essay Example for Free

Australia Pre-Primary Education Industry Essay Rising Traction of Private Players to Foster Growth of Australia Pre-primary Education Industry: Ken Research The pre-primary education and childcare markets in Australia have showcased separate growth trajectory over the years. The pre-primary market in Australia is an emerging market characterized by the rising awareness about the quality early childhood education and care amongst parents. Although the public spending on the pre-primary education in Australia is amongst the lowest spending countries in the OECD, the government has taken substantial steps to promote the access and the importance of the pre-primary education amongst the masses. The regional pre-primary markets in each of the state or territory differ from another as the governing system is decentralized. Henceforth while the market-run kindergartens account for a dominant share in the states such as New South Wales, Victoria and Queens land, in states including Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania, Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory, a vast majority of preschools are government funded and run. Subsequently, the format of education and age-group of the children varies accordingly. The childcare market in Australia is a developed and matured market and is marked by a high degree of fragmentation. The childcare market caters to children aged up to twelve and has experienced a steady growth in the last six years, propelled by high demand prevailing in the market. In the last few years, childcare market has been increasingly recognized by the government as a means of increasing womens employability in the workforce. Henceforth, various provisions such as Child Care Rebates, Child Care Benefit have been provided, which has encouraged increasing enrollments in this sector. The market revenues of the childcare market have increased from USD 7,081. 6 million in FY’2008 at a CAGR of 5. 6% during FY’2008-FY’2012. The marketplace of pre-primary education and childcare industry in Australia has witnessed a growing number of market players after the fall of the market leader ABC Learning in FY’2008. A majority of the ABC centers was taken over by Goodstart Learning, a nonprofit organization, which accounted for ~% of the market share of the childcare market in FY’2012. Other major players include G8 education and KU children services. The market has showcased an increasing number of profit-making players over the years, owing to the growing attractiveness of the market. With the increasing number of Long-day care centers providing preschool education, the pre-primary education market of Australia has been reflecting signs of growing integration with the childcare market. As the number of nuclear families and women workers has grown in the Australian economy, the dependency on child care has also consequently increased, leading to many preschools providing child care services as well. The report â€Å"Australia Pre-primary Education and Childcare Industry Outlook to FY’2017† provides detailed overview on the pre-primary education and childcare industry from various perspectives. The report encloses a comprehensive analysis of the various segments of the market reflecting the present scenario and future growth affected by changing industry dynamics in coming years. Additionally, the report also entails information about the public and private sector initiatives, rational analysis of the macroeconomic factors, along with the profiles of the major market players of the pre-primary education and childcare industry. The report will help industry consultants, companies and other stakeholders to align their market centric strategies according to ongoing and expected trends in future. For more information on the industry research report please refer to the below mentioned link: http://www. kenresearch. com/education/pre-school-education/australia-pre-primary-educationresearch-report/398-99. html The report titled â€Å"Australia Pre-Primary Education and Childcare Industry Outlook to FY’2017Increasing Influx of Private Players to Foster Industry Revenues† provides a detailed analysis of the preprimary education and childcare industry covering various aspects including market size of pre-primary education and childcare markets in terms of revenues, enrollments, establishments and number of teachers, and market segmentation on the basis of gender and region-wise enrollments and type of funding institutions along with ongoing trends in the industry. The report also includes competitive landscape and profiles of the major players operating in the industry. The future projections are included to provide an insight on the prospects in the Australia childcare market. The pre-primary and childcare industry of Australia is a diverse market which has undergone significant changes over the years. The pre-primary education and childcare markets in Australia are distinguished by the age-group of the target population and the mode of education. The childcare market of Australia is a matured market serving to children aged up to twelve. The type of services provided in the Australian market is quite diverse catering to the various needs and requirement of the families. The revenues of the child care market have grown strongly over the years, with supply largely keeping in pace with demand. Over the past years, child care in Australia has evolved from a form of early learning and education to a key mechanism to support labor force participation. The market for the childcare is competed by private businesses, communities and government run centres. The pre-primary education market of Australia is an emerging market marked by low penetration of the services. The enrollment rates for the children aged 3 and above are still very low. The formats and settings for preschool education in Australia vary from one state or territory to another with departments of education responsible for governing the preschool sector each state. Consequently, the market setting of pre-primary education sector is assorted, with Queensland being one of states which has mandated the admission in the pre-primary education for young kids. Preschool programs in Australia are run by both government and non-government services, including community preschools and child care providers. The competitive landscape of the Australia pre-primary and childcare industry is quite fragmented which has witnessed increasing market entries over the years after the fall of ABC Learning in FY’2008, the market leader the industry. Presently, the childcare market of the industry features a number of players which operate on non-profit basis. However, the increasing influx of the profit-making players has been driving the revenues of the market in recent years. Goodstart Learning, G8 education and KU children services constitute some of the major players of the industry. The pre-primary education and childcare industry in Australia has been witnessing growing integration of the pre-primary and childcare markets with the increasing number of Long day care centers with preschool programs in the country. Preschools with childcare facilities are increasingly becoming a common phenomenon, with increasing trend of customized services being offered by the providers. Computer-based education has also entered into the preschool segment, reflecting the increasing quality of the education imparted.

Spiral of Silence: Communication Theory

Spiral of Silence: Communication Theory This is a report based on the communication theory â€Å"Spiral of Silence and the aim of the report is to investigate the theory more into detail, to validate it and to see how it applies to our society, mainly in the I.T industry. The report outlines the finding that I have researched and complied with the help of books, data bases, journals and external sources. Based on the theory, Elizabeth Noelle Neumann stated that if individuals believed that they are part of the minority, the less likely they are to voice their opinion due to the fear of isolation. There were many other theorists that supported her view and others that had stated so before her. There was a variety of theory being investigated and in many different forms but the all focused on one thing which was, the â€Å"fear of social isolation†. There were many forms of research method used, based on the public view, a country as a whole and as individual view. The theory is said to apply to very delicate topics such as war, politics, misuse of authority and other views that could cause massive debate. This is the reason why people tend to think twice when it comes to voicing their views if they believe that they are in the minority group. Having a fair idea of what the theory is about, I will validate the theory with all the information that I have found and prove the theory stating if the theory has any connection to our society and individuals. Introduction Purpose This report is based on the theory spiral of silence those main purpose is to state how it can be applied to everyday situations and particularly the I.T industry. Research is an investigative process where we search systematically for solutions to problems. It is about rules to guide our research and helping us to evaluate the research of others. The function of the research is to test the theory. Research is the instrument used to test whether a theory is correct or not. It is the process by which data is gathered to generate a theory and used to test a theory. This main purpose for this report is to explain the theory in detail and outline the key issues that the theory sates. Also it helps us understand communication theory better and clearer, since communication is an important skill to have in the I.T industry and we also use it in our everyday lives, it is an important skill to have. There are a lot of topics and political problems that people are afraid to talk about and spea k out on and so I will try to prove or investigate the theory and see if the theory relates to what it states and if the theorists is credible. Scope In the report I will be investigating the theory and its relationship it has to communication. I will also evaluate the credibility of the theorists and the theory and how it can be applied to the present day situations particularly in the information technology industry. There were a lot of different views expressed and in different context. I will be focusing more in the involvement and effect that the media has on us as individuals in forming opinions. Since media is seen to play a major role in this theory, I will focus more on it but not forgetting the other factors that may cause the spiral of silence. I will also outline some of the tests and experiments that were done by some scholars and theorist and evaluate it. Limitations During the overall completion of the project I did face certain problems and ran into difficulties. Firstly although there was enough time given to complete the research I had other projects to complete, which in turn made it difficult to compile the report. There was however a bit of restriction on the amount of information that was available on the internet, in that case I had rely on the other sources like the pro-quest and the online data base. There werent many books available in the library that contained information regarding my theory so my tutor was able to issue me with some books which did help me compile my research. The computer labs on campus were usually occupied and so I had to do most of my research and the typing at home. Research Methods Searching for information and investigating the theory was a very challenging task to do especially when here were limited resources available on the internet. There were information available but most of it had similar information which made it hard to use. I had to use all resources available including library data bases, internet and old scholar journals. I wasnt really able to find any books in the library, but I was able to get two books from my tutor that contained information about my theory and it provided me with a lot of details that helped me understand the theory in details and explained the theory in detail and context. It explained a lot about the theory stating the history and how it is viewed by the public and each individual. Most of the information which I found on the internet was manly repeated and each website stated almost similar information which really stated the same information. The only relevant information that I was able to use was the information about the theory and the theorist. The Scholar journals did have a bit more information about the theory which mainly based on a research that was done. I found some journal that stated a research and the findings of the investigation. It looked at the theory in a different form in which it was applied in an investigation and research. Structure Of The Report In this report I will briefly explain and introduce the theory then explain the purpose, scope, research methods and limitations of the research. I will also do a literature review that will briefly review some of the sources where I got my information from. The main body will contain the findings, background, key issues, and application of the theory then finally evaluate it. In the final part I will summarise my report and then state my opinions and thoughts about the theory. Literature Review Book Reviews Book 1: Communication Theories for Everyday Life John R. Baldwin, Stephen D. Perry, Mary Anne Moffitt. (2003). Communication Theories for Everyday Life (1st Edition). Person: Allyn Bacon, Inc. Summary The book Communication Theories for Everyday Life (New Edition) provides us with a lot of information on the theory by Elizabeth Neumann, The Spiral of silence. The authors in this book mainly focus the theory spiral of silence based on the media which is said to play an influential role. They believe that the media plays an important role in influencing the public into making decisions or ideas. They explained how the theory provides some insight into why we might avoid contributing to some political discussions but participate fully in others based on our observation of opinion in the real world. Sports can also bring out heated opinions in certain settings with fans of a certain team will argue or debate amongst a member of the opposing teams. When issues like this arise we tend to be more careful about when and to whom we express our ideas and opinions. We are constantly surveying our environment subconsciously for trends in public opinions. Television is believed to be the most influential medium for this theory since it is everywhere. We may not own a TV of our own but we see it in stores, airports or at a friends house. Being part of the majority is what most people tend to want and we will compare our opinions with that of the majority because we desire social inclusion. Therefore if someone believes he or she is in the minority, that person will be inhibited from speaking out and expressing the minority view point. Validation After carefully reading and analysing the following abstract from the book, I conclude that the facts that were stated in this book do have some connections to the theory. They have outlined a lot of ideas to what the theory spiral of silence is about. It also points out some important facts mainly that mass media is seen to be a very important tool in changing peoples views or forming their decisions. Since people tend to base their decisions on the majoritys choice. It also provides some insight into how television actually has an impact on the people as a whole. It proves that people are double mined on speaking out as a minority and will be more comfortable if they believe that they are part of the majority. Since there is a lot of support in the majority we wont fear social isolation, but if we are in the minority there is not much support and so we fear that we are on our own and so we may be isolated. According to the theory by Elizabeth she believes that mass media does have a huge effect on the theory and so the authors have based most of their finding on Neumanns theory about the media. Most of the information in the abstract concentrates on the medias influence, changes and perceptions that it may have on our opinions. Book 2: Introducing Communication Theory: Analysis Application Richard West, Lynn H. Tuner. (2004). Introducing Communication Theory: Analysis Application (2nd Edition). Marquette University Summary The Book Introducing Communication Theory: Analysis Application, explains the theory spiral of silence by Elizabeth Noelle Neumann. It explains how the media has impacted our opinions and changed dramatically over the years. The authors stated that over the years the media has helped to shape and make us what we are today. They believe that Neumann focused on what happened when people provide their opinions on a variety of issues that the media have defined for the public. Her theory suggests that people who believe that they hold a minority viewpoint on the public issue will remain in the background or isolated. Where their communication will be constrained, those who believe that they hold a majority viewpoint will be encouraged to speak out. Neumann stated that the media will focus more on the majority views while underestimating the minority viewpoint. She believes that the media will only be focused on the minority and their views while forgetting the minority groups. The minori ty will be less assertive in communicating their opinions therefore leading to a downward spiral of communication. The minority will then overestimate their influence and will become emboldened in their opinions where the media reports on their opinions and activities. The media is seen to play a very important role in the theory. The media chooses to report on the majority groups opinions and activities and only tend to focus on them where they will be heard by the public. The minority will then be forgotten and so their opinions and view s are not heard. Validation The authors have highlighted some very important points about the theory. Mass media being the main focus, it has a lot of influence on peoples opinions. It is seen to be a very powerful tool that could change peoples views and mentality. It has the power to influence and change people beliefs, making them believe what they are told or shown. It is human mentality to go with the flow and just follow the crowd. We are easily convinced just because the majority rules. If we had to debate a topic and asked to choose an answer we tend to choose the group where there is a lot of support forgetting about the minority. The authors are just moving on from Neumanns theory to explaining more into detail the role of the media on our opinions. Thought they may not have done any research on the theory, they have research more on the theory and explained it in simple terms. Library Databases Journal 1: The Spiral of Silence is broken Jose Luis Barberia, Kel Pais Rel Pais. (March 5, 2009). The Spiral of Silence is broken. (1), (6). Summary This article was based on an experiment that was done in Taiwan which explored the relationships between inoculation and the spiral of silence theory. According to the writers they believed that inoculation strategies would be able to ease spiral of silence focusing on resistance to counter-attitudinal attack and willingness to speak out for fear of isolation. The study was based on random sampled citizens in Taiwan while he issue being Taiwans political future in relation the Peoples Republic of China. The results concluded that Inoculation treatments enhanced peoples resistance to attitude change. The study seeks to integrate the theories of inoculation and the spiral of silence. The factors featured in the spiral of silence theory might have significant implications for inoculation studies.They also stated that Noelle-Neumann initiated some original assumptions of the theory which was individual, media system and societal. They explained that individuals are social beings are afra id of being isolated from their fellow human being. Secondly, in order to avoid being isolated or losing popularity, individuals constantly observe their environment to locate proper positions to enable them to perceive the distribution of opinions. Third is that the individuals are capable of distinguishing between static and fluid opinions. Fourth is the social environment where individual notice that their personal opinions are spreading and supported by others will voice their opinions confidently in public. In contrast, if they notice their opinions losing ground they will adopt a more reserved attitude when speaking out in public or even withdraw from the public discussion. This is the chain reaction for fear of isolation. Validation This journal goes deep into context and explains the theory deeper and focuses on the human behaviour based on the theory. It was an experiment that was done in Taiwan, exploring the relationships between Inoculation and the spiral of silence theory. It was stated that Inoculation could counter the spiral of silence theory. The study focused more on the human behaviour and explains why we tend to isolate ourselves and are afraid to speak out in public. It helps us understand why the theory affects the minority groups. It examined the potential influences of the individuals construct on opinion expression as a cultural-level and the willingness to express opinions differing across two cultures. The test also saw that the lack of efficacy negatively predicts a willingness to express opinions while the lack of self-assurance of ones opinions negatively predicts a willingness to express opinions. Journal 2: The Spiral of Silence and Public opinion on affirmative action Patricia May, David Domke, Keith Stamm. (Spring, 2001). The Spiral of Silence and Public opinion on affirmative action. (78). (1) This journal was a study done to explain the key variables involved in Elizabeth Noelle-Neumanns Spiral of Silence Theory, which states that fearing isolation is what keeps the individuals from expressing their desired opinions because they are minority. The authors decided to carry out a test based on the theory but in the context of public discussion which was focused on affirmative action policies. They reviewed selected data from 217 randomly selected adults on October 1998 that indicated fear of isolation. It showed that fear of isolation indeed prevents one from publicly voicing perceived minority opinions. The willingness to speak out on a controversial ballot was predicted also by demographics, media use and the importance of the issue. In recent years, citizens have voted to repeal affirmative action laws and policies that have been enacted in the 1960s and 1970s; ensuring opportunity regards less of race and gender. It is believed that this trend caused more harm than good, while others disagreed arguing that affirmative action may be the best approach. There were a lot of public discussions about affirmative action. They believed that Neumann suggest that issues which are controversial tends to make people refrain from expressing their opinions if they believe that it will only be shared by minority. The study basically explores the factors contributing to peoples willingness to speak publicly on controversial topics, focusing on the concept of fear of isolation. Validation This journal is another research project investigating more on the theory. They researched it on the public opinions based on affirmative actions. The theory suggests that isolation from the publicly stating our opinions may occur people believe that they are part of the minority group. The study does prove the theory to some extent where they based the study on public opinions which does have a lot to do with the theory because it is mainly in public that people are double minded on raising their opinions. People are also cautious when speaking on controversial topics and topics which may raise some concerns or opinions. The study was seen to be successful and so does to some extent prove the theory correct. Overall in this case I can say that the theory is correct and the study done was successful and did test the willingness of the public on the controversial ballot. The only downside would be that they used data from the past and merged it with their research, which means that it may be old or irrelevant with the present time. Internet Sources Source 1: Wikipedia Wikipedia. (2009). Spiral of silence. Retrieved August 12, 2009, from Summary This web page explains Elizabeth Neumanns theory is a theoretical way. It states that the theory is a political science and mass communication theory. The spiral of silence begins with the fear of retaliation or isolation and escalates from there. Mass media is seen to play a major role in determining what the dominant opinion is, since our observation is limited to a small percentage of the population. Neumann describes the spiral of silence as a dynamic process, where public opinion becomes a fact as mass medias coverage of the majority opinion gets more publicity, and the minority becomes less likely to speak out. The theory is seen to only apply to moral or opinion issues, not issues that can be proven right or wrong using facts. People who are highly educated, or who have greater affluence or those who do not fear isolation will speak out regardless of public opinions which means the minority is a necessary factor of change while the compliant majority is a necessary factor of s tability, with both being a product of evolution. Most research is focused on social issues such as smoking and the aftermath of September 11, 2001. The concept of isolation has a variety of definitions, depending on the circumstances it is investigated in. It could be defined as social withdrawal which means less interaction. Researchers have defined isolation as low levels of peer acceptance or high levels of peer rejection. The features of the internet could not only bring about more people to deliberate by freeing people of the psychological barriers. They have also raised another point where the internet is also another form of expressing their views without fear of isolation because it can be anonymous and there is no human contact which means that the persons identity could be protected. The internet has a lot of users because it liberates people from the social hierarchies and power relations that exists offline without any human contact. Validation Wikipedia is an online web-based encyclopaedia project supported by the non-profit Wikimedia Foundation which provides us with any information that we may want. The only problem is that most of the information is posted on by the public, which means they may not be proven theoretically or have any evidence. Wikipedia looks at the theory in a theoretical perspective which explains the theory in detailed and clearer view which is closely connected with the Elizabeth theory. According to the author he/she also believes that mass media plays an important role in the theory and how it works. The concept of isolation is also explained deeper into context where it has varies definitions. It explains the social withdrawal which means less interaction and isolation. It looks at the internet as another medium that has a very huge impact on people. Since it can be accessed from home or anywhere and is gives us choices on what we want to do because it does not include human contact which makes i t easier for the minority groups or any individual to express themselves and will not be isolated because it is anonymous. Findings About The Theorist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann is a German political scientist that was born on the 19th of December, 1916. Her most famous contribution is the model of the spiral of silence which is an explanation of how perceived public opinion can influence individual opinions or actions. She earned her Abitur in 1935 in Gà ¶ttingen and then studied philosophy, history, journalism, and American studies at the Friedrich Wilhelm University, the Kà ¶nigsberg Albertina University, and the University of Missouri. She lived in the USA from 1937 to 1938 andiIn 1940 she received her PhD concentrating on public opinion research in the USA. Noelle-Neumann was also the president of the World Association for Public Opinion Research from 1978 to 1980 and worked as a guest professor at the University of Chicago from 1978 to 1991. About The Theory Spiral of Silence is an innovative theory of public opinion that developed by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann. Noelle-Neumann follows the paths of past philosophers Locke, Hume, Rousseau, Goethe, and James Madison, in that she considers public opinion a physical force that controls peoples decisions. Noelle-Neumann blames the spiral of silence on fear of isolation. In other words, people who feel that they are in the minority may keep quiet because they fear ridicule from the majority. The phrase â€Å"spiral of silence refers to how people tend to stay silent when they feel that their views are in the minority. The model shows the increasing pressure which people are noticing to conceal their views when they think that they are in the minority. It is a political science and mass communication theory which begins with fear of reprisal or isolation, and escalates from there. Spiral of Silence model The model is based on three premises: 1. People have a sixth-sense, which allows them to know the prevailing public opinion, even without access to polls. 2. People have a fear of isolation and know what behaviours will increase their likelihood of being socially isolated. 3. People are silent to express their minority views, primarily out of fear of being isolated. Source: http://www.cw.utwente.nl/theorieenoverzicht/Levels%20of%20theories/macro/spiral_of_silence.doc/ Introduction Elizabeth Neumann examines public opinion as a form of social control. She believes that Individuals instinctively notice the opinions of those around them and shape their behaviour according to what is acceptable. The closer a person believes the opinion held is similar to the prevailing public opinion, the more he/she is willing to openly disclose that opinion in public. If the public statement changes, the person will recognize that the opinions loses its popularity and the person will be less willing to express that opinion publicly. In her model of opinion formation, Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann postulates a spiral of silence: to avoid isolation, people holding minority views either change their ideas to conform to the majoritys views or remain silent, thus increasing the impression of the majority views dominance. While providing a helpful integration of disparate ideas in public opinion formation, Noelle-Neumanns framework has been questioned at a number of points. Is it reasonable to assume that since people fear isolation, most fear being in the minority? Her research suggests, in fact, that many people can oppose majority views as long as they have individual or group support and that interpersonal relationships have a greater impact on opinion formation than impersonal public opinion presented through the media. Recent studies have also offered an alternative to Noelle-Neumanns view of people as simply reacting to their perception of public opinion, suggesting that instead, people use their own opinions to for m their perceptions of public attitudes. Whether peoples behaviour resembles the reaction or projection model may depend on a number of conditions, including their familiarity with the issue. Further research is needed on the many factors influencing opinion formation The Fear Of Isolation This is the main force that drives the spiral of silence. People want to be identified as a winner and therefore conform to the majoritys beliefs. The last thing that people want is to be isolated from a group or society. There are some exceptions though, as there is a time to speak and a time to keep silent which is centred on public opinion. If our view is in favour we will speak out then when our views drop out of favour, we will most defiantly keep silent. Summary In 1973, Elizabeth Noelle- Neumann articulated one of the few integrated expositions of the mass communication effects and the process of public opinion. In general she was able to demonstrate that individuals can attempt to gauge majority opinion on an issue and that some individuals appear to be influenced by their perceptions of majority opinion on some issues. In doing so she was successful in clarifying and empirically testing hypothesis about a concept that has been only vaguely defined in public opinion. In this report I will be outlining Noelle-Neumanns conceptualization of two key concepts, the climate of opinion and that spiral of silence of silence. The validity of basing the â€Å"fear of isolation† concept on social psychological literature on conformity is examined. Also the role of the media in conveying the majority opinion will be examined. The Spiral Of Silence According to Noelle- Neumann, individuals are constantly sensitive to the climate of opinion and assess the distribution and strength of the opinion for and against their own. The tendency of one to speak up and others to be silent leads to the spiralling process which increasingly establishes one opinion as the popular one. Neumanns definition of public opinion is best expressed as the dominating opinion which compels compliance of attitude a behaviour in that it threatens the dissenting individuals with isolation. There are a few individuals that are known as â€Å"hardcores† who are willing to express their opinions without feeling compelled to conform. They will not be silent in the face of the public opinion. How do individuals know which opinions are acceptable to express in public without the fear of isolation? Neumann claims that by the use of a â€Å"quasi-statistical organ†, the individual assesses the opinion environment. The individual will the specifically use the climate of opinion. The media plays an important role through agenda-setting, according to certain persons and arguments relating the urgency or share of success for various opinions. One of the main parts of the explanation to the spiral of silence is the role of mass media. Noelle-Neumann believes that with more people watching mass media, the more the minority will keep quite because they will think that they are even more of a minority that they actually are. She claims that this is so because it is becoming the only media outlet that people are using, along with the internet, so it is able to control exactly what people see or hear. The media know this and because of that, they use their powers to influence the public opinion as much as possible towards which ever beliefs they hold or want to put across. Noelle-Neumann claimed that in the early seventys, the media had powerful effects, particularly over opinion formation. She believed that it was deficient because it was conducted under laboratory conditions and not in the field. Mass media is everywhere and individuals can rarely escape accumulation of the same media message. It was also found that in any circumstance a person with low self-esteem is less likely to speak out even if they agree with the majority opinion, simply because that is what their personality dictates. She also discovered that having diverse reporting has a powerful role in the mass media and the views of those watching it. Since the media is diverse, and it shares different view points on a subject, then people will be more willing to take different sides of an argument because they will not feel as alienated as before. The elements of Noelle-Neumanns ideas can also be found in several scholarly works including Floyd Allport (1978) who described the climate of opinion. John Locke (1961) describes Noelle-Neumanns â€Å"hardcores† when he says â€Å"nor is there one of ten thousand who is stiff and insensible enough to bear up under the constant dislike and condemnation of his own club† W.Phillps Davison (1975) describes the public opinion process of conformity-induced silence occurs when an individual feels he/she is in the midst of a hostile majority. Thus the concept of the opinion climate and the spiral of silence are not new. Noelle-Neumann was able to articulate a thesis based on these concepts and generated data to support some of her contentions. When Noelle Neumann was forced to revise her theory to accommodate the other findings, the theory became much better. She added to her theory many other factors such as race, gender, age, environment, and social status. Now the theory cl aims that all of these things, in addition to whether one is in the majority of the opinion on a subject, will all matter whether a person speaks out. Fear Of Isolation Conformity Since Pressure to conform is a major portion of Noelle-Neumanns foundation for her arguments, Solomon Asch (1995) also did a study where he put one subject in the midst of seen confederates and asked each person to determine the shortest of three lines. Arch had seven confederates purposively select an incorrect line, and then examined the subjects response in light of the clearly wrong response of the confederates. He found that one-fourth of the subjects were completely independent of any majority pressure. These people, who Noelle-Neumann would label â€Å"hardcores†, selected the correct lines despite pressure to conform and select the incorrect line. On the other hand, no subjects conformed on every trial the situation did not elicit total conformity from subjects. He found that in manipulating some independent variables, pressure to agree is highly specific. There is no single â€Å"type† of individual who agrees, nor does public conformity imply inner acceptance of judgment or opinion. In analyzing different groups of subjects, Asch found that although very few yielded nearly completely to majority influence, they didnt think they had yielded at all. These people perceived the majority estimates as correct and didnt feel as though they themselves had conformed. Most of the subjects, who agreed, however lacked the confidence in their estimates and felt a tendency to go along with the majority when in doubt. Others who confirmed knew they were right but did not want to appear different from the majority. In a follow-up experiment, Asch found that if the subject had some support from some in the group, conformity to majority influence inclined substantially. Noelle-Neumann based her spiral of silence theory notion on face-to-face, small group situations that was described by Locke (1961), Allport (1937) and Asch (1951). In each of the cases the individual is isolated a midst a hostile majority and in direct contact with his antagonists. Although most of the test that were done in the past did prove the theory, there were some circumstances that were overlooked, as to the ability to apply to universal situations. For example, different ages, gender and education were left out and the very fact that the questions that were asked were about irrelevant things, raises the